Global Soybean Meal Price Trends: Feed Demand, Trade Flows, and Cost Drivers

 

Soybean meal has become one of the world's most important agricultural commodities due to its role as a high-protein animal feed ingredient. As meat, dairy, and aquaculture production expand, soybean meal’s relevance in global feed formulations only grows. Understanding Soybean Meal Price movements—and the broader Soybean Meal Price Trends they reflect—is essential for feed manufacturers, livestock producers, traders, and policymakers alike.

What Is Soybean Meal and Why It Matters

Soybean meal is the protein-rich byproduct of crushing soybeans to extract oil. After oil extraction, the remaining meal contains high levels of digestible protein, making it a staple feed ingredient globally, particularly for poultry, swine and aquaculture diets. According to industry data, about 72% of global soybean meal consumption is used in animal feed, with poultry alone accounting for 58% and swine about 24% of that total.

As global diets shift toward animal-based proteins with rising income and population growth, demand for soybean meal continues to expand—supporting sustained feed industry growth and influencing Soybean Meal Price Trends across markets.

Recent Soybean Meal Price Trends and Market Movements

Supply Expansion and Trade Growth

In the 2025–26 marketing year (Oct–Sept), global soybean meal exports are projected to reach around 82 million metric tons, marking a third consecutive record year for global trade, according to the U.S. Department of Agriculture’s Foreign Agricultural Service.

This expansion has been fueled by strong crushing activities in major producing countries like Brazil and the United States, supported by policies that encourage oilseed processing, including biofuel mandates in both regions. Large production and export volumes have helped keep meal prices relatively competitive compared with other feed ingredients.

Price Softness and Recent Movements

Soybean meal prices have experienced noticeable fluctuation in recent years. For example, prices have declined significantly from peaks near USD 550/mt in late 2023 to roughly USD 300/mt by mid-2025, largely due to increased supply and slowdowns in feed demand growth in certain markets.

Region-specific trends show that in Asia, particularly China, soybean meal indices have softened quarter-over-quarter due to weakening livestock demand and rising inventories from record import volumes, while in Europe domestic stocks of alternative protein meals have declined, shifting some demand back toward soybean meal imports.Key Demand Drivers Shaping Price Trends

Animal Feed Demand

The principal factor behind global soybean meal consumption is animal feed demand. A growing global population with rising incomes encourages shifts toward higher protein diets, supporting demand for poultry, pork, beef, and fish—each of which relies on soybean meal for its nutritional profile.

Poultry Sector Growth

Global poultry production consistently leads soybean meal demand due to its efficiency and widespread consumption patterns. As the poultry sector expands—especially in Asia and Latin America—feed formulators increasingly depend on soybean meal to meet protein and amino acid needs.

Aquaculture Feed Expansion

Aquaculture has emerged as one of the fastest-growing feed sectors. In countries like Vietnam and Thailand, commercial fish and shrimp operations consume significant volumes of soybean meal, contributing to broader demand and influencing price dynamics.

Swine and Dairy Demand

While poultry remains dominant, swine and dairy sectors also contribute materially to soybean meal use. Swine diets typically contain 20–25% soybean meal, and in dairy formulations, increasing use improves milk yield and overall nutritional output.

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Supply Side Dynamics Influencing Soybean Meal Price

Large Harvests and Crushing Capacity

Record crush volumes in Brazil, Argentina, and the United States have increased exportable soybean meal supplies. Brazil alone produced tens of millions of tonnes of soybean meal in 2024, exporting significant volumes globally, with Brazil and Argentina serving as pillars of the global supply base.

Meanwhile, the U.S. forecast for the 2025–26 season anticipated a soybean crush of roughly 2.56 billion bushels to support strong meal output.

Weather and Crop Risks

Soybean meal pricing is indirectly influenced by soybean crop conditions. Weather-sensitive yields—whether drought in Argentina or excess rains in Brazil—affect overall soybean supply and therefore crushing throughput, shaping meal supply and pricing risk.

Alternative Protein and Competition Pressures

Although soybean meal dominates feed formulation, alternative protein sources like canola meal, sunflower meal, and emerging plant-based proteins are increasingly explored by feed mills seeking dietary efficiency or sustainability. While not yet threatening soybean meal’s central role, these alternatives can add competitive pressure to pricing during periods of supply expansion.

Global Trade Flows and Their Impact on Prices

South America: Brazil and Argentina

Brazil and Argentina collectively account for the largest share of soybean meal exports, with Brazil often supplying more than a fifth of the global meal trade. These countries benefit from natural resource endowments and integrated crushing infrastructure that enable high processing capacity.

Trade activity had shifted in recent seasons, with Argentina’s crushing industry impacted by trade dynamics and export flows, leading to varying utilization rates that influence global meal supply availability.

Asia: China and Southeast Asia

China remains one of the most important destinations for soybean imports and meal usage due to its sizable livestock and aquaculture sectors. Even as China experiments with reducing soymeal content in feed formulations to cut reliance on imports, the country’s overall demand continues to shape global price behavior.

Southeast Asian import growth—especially in markets like Vietnam, Indonesia, and the EU—has also contributed to increased trade flows and competitive pricing patterns.

European Demand Patterns

Europe’s soybean meal imports have responded to regulatory and sustainability pressures—such as the EU Deforestation Regulation—which are reshaping sourcing decisions and supplier competitiveness. Nations complying with traceability norms may shift buying to South American suppliers, influencing regional pricing structures.

Price Drivers Beyond Supply and Demand

Tariffs and Policy Drivers

Agricultural trade policies and tariffs can exert significant influence on Soybean Meal Price Trends. Trade disputes or reciprocal tariff frameworks between major economies can alter competitive positions and cost bases for feed ingredient procurement.

For example, reciprocal trade frameworks affecting Indonesian imports highlight how tariff structures affect agricultural product flows globally.

Currency Exchange and Transport Costs

Because soybean meal is globally traded, movements in major currencies, especially the U.S. dollar, impact price competitiveness. A weaker dollar typically makes U.S. meal more attractive internationally, affecting global pricing. Shipping costs, freight rates, and port logistics also feed into total landed costs and thus price signal formation.

Energy and Input Costs

Energy prices—for both crushing operations and transportation—have ripple effects on overall production economics. Fluctuating fuel and electricity expenses contribute to the cost base, influencing price dynamics upstream of feed manufacturers.

Regional Price Trends and Market Outlook

North America

In the U.S., soybean meal prices are influenced by domestic crush capacity, seasonal yield patterns, and export demand. Forecasts suggest meal prices remaining near USD ~280 per short ton for the 2025/26 season, though basis premiums vary by port and origin.

North American feed manufacturers benefit from integrated supply chains and strong export links, which help stabilize local pricing even amidst global volatility.

South America

Brazil and Argentina’s role as export hubs provides significant price leadership. Brazil’s FOB Paranaguá and Argentina’s FOB Up River prices often set benchmarks for global meal flows, with differentials influenced by local currency moves and demand fundamentals.

Growth in South American crush capacity, underpinned by biofuel incentives and agricultural policies, continues to reinforce these countries’ importance in global price formation.

Asia and Europe

Asia’s consumption patterns, especially in China and Southeast Asia, remain a cornerstone of global demand that affects price dynamics. In Europe, sustainability regulations and import policy adjustments are shaping meal sourcing strategies and relative price positioning.

Forecast and What Lies Ahead

Looking forward, Soybean Meal Price Trends are expected to remain influenced by several structural factors:

• Growing global demand for protein and feed continues to support baseline meal demand, particularly in emerging markets with expanding livestock and aquaculture sectors.

• Record global crush and trade flows are likely to moderate price volatility, but adverse weather, freight disruptions, or geopolitical tensions can introduce periodic price pressures.

• Policy changes and regulations—including tariffs and sustainability compliance—will shape trade routes and potentially introduce new cost differentials.

• Innovation in feed formulation and alternative proteins may add competitive dimension to price dynamics, though soybean meal’s dominant position is likely to persist due to its cost-effective protein profile.

Overall, while short-term price fluctuations are probable, the long-term outlook for soybean meal remains anchored by enduring feed demand growth and robust global trade flows.

Conclusion

The global soybean meal market is shaped by a complex interplay of demand drivers, supply dynamics, trade flows, and cost structures. Soybean Meal Price levels reflect not only current balance between supply and demand but also broader structural trends in livestock production, biofuel policies, and global agricultural trade. Meanwhile, Soybean Meal Price Trends illustrate how evolving consumption patterns, policy shifts, and production developments continually inform market pricing.

For feed producers, livestock farmers, and commodity traders, staying attuned to these trends—and the underlying fundamentals behind them—will be crucial for strategic positioning in a grain-and-protein landscape poised for continued expansion and change.

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